129724942015081844_83Real estate regulation that began early last year, despite the huge impact to bring China's economy, but so far the Central show's determination to stick it.
The reason
swtor credits, in addition to eliminating factors in society outside of high prices, but also monstrous real estate market distorting China's economic structure, brunt is the capital of a large number of escape from the manufacturing industry. 2011, Rendering a continuous declining trend of China's manufacturing industry. HSBC Manufacturing PMI index for December last year
swtor power leveling, remain below 50 for two consecutive months; entire seasons PMI average hit a 09 lows since the first quarter of the year. Now for this year's economic situation generally takes a cautious approach, "growth" and "amidst" and other words frequently lift. However, How to achieve stable economic growth? In our view, revitalize the manufacturing sector and create a good environment is a top priority.
Judging from the current situation, this year's domestic difficulties faced by the manufacturing industry could be very large. Primary pressure coming from rising production costs, which included labor and raw materials. Just after the Spring Festival this year, messages from the Shanghai labour market shows that employmentUnits out of the wages generally than those in the rose, but migrant workers do not seem to buy it, workers directly out of the minimum requirements of 35,001 straight month. Across the Yangtze River Delta, 1800 a month seems to have become the bottom line. Analysts said sales growth in the enterprise must reach about 13% to digestion, rising labor costs. In addition, raw material and energy pricesI'm afraid is also manufacturing enterprises have to face problems. International bulk raw materials commodity prices last year, there had been low, but it's depressing new investment. Barclays Capital recently published analysis says 2011 commodities dropped to us $ 15 billion of new investment flows fell nearly by 2010 in funds in the field to a 9-year low point, and 2009-2010Reached more than US $ 140 billion. Direct consequence of the decline in prices of supply. The area of energy, degree of dependence on oil imports continued to record high in China, in the 2011 is becoming a net importer of coal for the first time, that scenario reinforced the dependence on international markets integrated manufacturing costs in China, and increased oil supply instability and the context of a global alignment begin to print money, Falling raw material prices may be very strong support. Second pressure comes from domestic and foreign demand slows. Manufacturing industry is the support of China's exports, but European debt not only has not been effectively eased the situation, but have developed into long-term trends of the problem; the United States although the recovery is relatively well, but it is also treading on thin ice, any trouble that could make the situation reversed. SeaCustoms Department data released recently showed that narrow trade surplus in 2011 from $ 183 billion in 2010 to $ 155.14 billion. According to Deutsche Bank research report, economic growth in Europe and America each fall 1%, export growth, China must by 6%. Downturn in external demand, domestic demand and how? In this regard, there are currently two consensus: first, the potential of domestic demand in ChinaIs enormous and, second, domestic consumption lack strength. In fact, domestic demand depends on the consumer also depends on the income distribution, the latter need deep structural reforms. However, taking into account the 2012 faces Government General, substantive changes will not be the probability of the event. Consumer incentives are root-difficult. In addition, there is another point, with the real estateRegulation, market expectations for policy fine-tuning until the relaxation in an enhanced, cannot be ruled out cash to purchase possible
swtor power leveling, and this would have delayed action on consumption. Manufacturing industry cannot develop without credit financing, recession of 2011, to a large extent, factors with credit control. But expect substantially relaxed this year was unrealistic in 2011, all new7.47 trillion of credit, even if growth this year, probably no more than 8 trillion. If you look at the real estate regulation and local government debt pressure on cleaning up bad debts of banks, risk control is the play of the year, rather than lifted its discharge. Need to be reminded of is that Wu Ying was given a death sentence shows that the Government's determination to combat civil illegal loans, but historyShows that China's manufacturing enterprises, particularly SMEs, is actually pretty dependent on governmental financing; while formal financial institutions such as central to encourage banks to increase loans, but in the absence of structural change in circumstances, won't do much, rise of manufacturing enterprise financing difficulty I'm afraid not drop. This analysis is based on the domestic situation, do not involve manufacturing countryInternational competition.
United States developed economies have set about trying to change represented too "hollowing out" the status quo, United States established trade-enforcement action is a clear sign of. Final analysis: highlight the difficulty is not totally pessimistic, we would like to remind that, domestic policy departments and enterprises need to prepare for the manufacturing sector could face difficulties. How to profitStructural adjustment and policy support to release these odds form risks, significance for China's growth this year is huge. "Author: anbang consulting researcher Hao Li" (Editor: Chen Jun)
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